[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 68.0W AT 10/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 205 NM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 200 NM
SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W AT 26 KT.
ESTIMATED MIMIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 63W-67W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N21W TO 16N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
AXIS AND COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF 12N21W.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVE MOISTURE
MAXIMUM FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 18W-26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N40W TO 11N34W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS S OF 10N WITH LOW-
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING CYCLONIC TURNING VERTICALLY
THROUGH 700 MB S OF 12N BETWEEN 30W-40W. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THIS IS
RESULTING IN VERY LIMITED CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LARGELY REMAINS E OF 35W AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N91W TO 22N90W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE...LARGELY INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND MORE
DIFFICULT TO TRACK. HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 88W-
93W. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES ANY REMNANTS OF THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE NEAR
COASTAL EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
12N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
12N21W TO 07N37W TO 04N43W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH AND 210 NM SOUTH OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES OVER THE GULF BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTIYCYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR
35N102W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
NEAR 25N80W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT PREVAILS AND ALONG WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N88W
THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS W-NW...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN
GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 28N E OF 84W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF 28N W OF
93W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO HOLD FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
THE BASIN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS EXPECTED
TO BE POSITIONED IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND MOST LIKELY
BE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH PRECIPITATION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
WHICH IS POSITIONED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS E OF 69W...
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND MANY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. CHANTAL
IS FORECAST TO TRACK W-NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN
IMPACTING HISPANIOLA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS
NEAR 15N88W AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
70W-80W REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 20N
W OF 79W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FARTHER
SOUTH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
S OF 10N BETWEEN 72W-77W AND S OF 09N BETWEEN 77W-80W ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA. CHANTAL IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK W-NW CLEARING THE BASIN BY LATE THURSDAY WITH
E-SE TRADES RE-ESTABLISHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ISLAND AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TRACKING
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANOLA. CHANTAL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ON TOP OF OTHER IMPACTS SUCH AS
WIND AND STORM SURGE. ONCE CHANTAL MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...E-SE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME WITH THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W THAT IS PROVIDING THE SW NORTH ATLC S OF 28N W OF 75W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS EVENING.
THIS AREA INCLUDES EASTERN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NW BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N64W. THE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TRACKS ON ITS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N54W THAT SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N49W TO 30N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 38N34W THAT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N38W TO 26N45W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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