[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
63.7W ABOUT 238 NM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ITS PRESENT
MOVEMENT IS W-NW AT 23 KT AND IT HAS A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT WITH 65 KT
GUSTS. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A W-NW TRACK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND ITS CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
60W-66W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N20W
TO 06N21W MOVING W-SW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. SAL DRY
AIR IS TO THE N OF THIS WAVE AND CURRENTLY SPREADS OVER A LITTLE
PORTION OF ITS AXIS N OF 14N. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 216 NM EAST OF THE AXIS
FROM 11N-14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM
WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 08N-14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM 11N33W TO 03N37W
MOVING W-SW NEAR 5 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT
CONTINUES TO SHOW SAL DRY AIR WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH
IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. ITS
AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 22N87W TO 13N88W AND IS MOVING NEAR
10 KT. HIGH LOWER LEVELS MOISTURE AS WELL AS A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BELIZE AS WELL AS NORTHERN GUATEMALA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 10N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N23W TO 07N32W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL
WAVE FROM 04N38W TO 01S47W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY
DISCUSSED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
24W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT SURROUNDS THIS HIGH AND SPREADS
ACROSS THE GULF N OF 22N. OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SURFACE
TROUGHING CONTINUES NOW MOVING AROUND THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. A
SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS PART OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN IS MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N81W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE WEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM 24N-26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE WESTERN GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 92W-95W AS WELL AS S OF
21N W OF 95W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS DRY AIR.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS FLORIDA
TOWARDS THE NE GULF WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN THIS REGION.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
AS OF 2100 UTC ITS CENTER LIES ABOUT 238 NM SE OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 60W-66W. CHANTAL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A W-NW TRACK AND ITS CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 70W ANCHORED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. N OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF THE BAHAMAS. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS SUPPORTING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS
CONTINUE TO BANK LOW CLOUDS FROM HONDURAS TO NORTHERN PANAMA
WHICH IS GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS AND WITHIN 80 NM OF ITS
COASTLINES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FAST W-NW TRACK AND
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED W OF THE BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HISPANIOLA THIS
EVENING. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE
ISLAND AND EXIT NW HAITI VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE AND THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL SHOULD BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE UP FOR ALL OF
HISPANIOLA WITH A HURRICANE WATCH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS PART OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN IS MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE W
ATLC...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE GULF. THIS TROUGH IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED W OF
THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 73W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
1021 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS AXIS IS ALONG 30N39W SW TO
26N45W AND THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE
BESIDES THE FEATURES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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