[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 62.7W AT 1800 UTC
OR ABOUT 291 NM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING W-NW NEAR 25
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CHANTAL IS MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 60W-63W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 57W-64W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 18W FROM 8N-18N DRIFTING W. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION
IS NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N33W TO 4N37W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N85W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO 13N86W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W CONTINUING TO 10N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 7N33W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 4N39W TO
1N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-
13N BETWEEN 16W-20W INCLUDING THE COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 20W-25W AND
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 25W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 24W-31W AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CONUS ANCHORED OVER
THE DESERT SW TO NORTH CAROLINA GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS
REINFORCING THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 83W TO OVER S
FLORIDA AND W CUBA. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W
GULF FROM NEAR 28N92W TO 24N94W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N91W TO
24N95W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N
GULF COAST TO TEXAS WITH A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST. THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 21N-25W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU
BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SINK INTO
THE N CENTRAL GULF LATE FRI THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS T.S. CHANTAL THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
CHANTAL IS MOVING RAPIDLY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF
67W AND IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 86W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
S COAST OF CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N82W TO ACROSS S
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA TO NICARAGUA S OF 12N W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FAST W-NW TRACK
AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. CHANTAL
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CROSSING HISPANIOLA THEN CONTINUING MORE
N-NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70.5W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE S SIDE OF
HISPANIOLA WED MORNING CROSSING THE ISLAND WED EVENING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL SHOULD BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE UP FOR
ALL OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. CHANTAL IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND IS CENTERED NEAR 24N79W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N75W ALONG 28N77W TO 24N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
INCLUDING THE S PORTION FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N1W ALONG 30N55W TO 30N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. A
WEAK 1022 MB LOW IS TO THE E NEAR 31N41W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SE TO 27N45W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE LOW/TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES AND A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA. GOES R SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SWATH OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERS THE ATLC WITHIN 450 NM OF LINE
FROM BEYOND 32N21W ALONG 19N34W TO 14N51W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT S THROUGH THU BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER FLORIDA WED AND DISSIPATE. TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
WED THEN INTO THE FAR S BAHAMAS EARLY THU THROUGH SUN.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net