[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
53.9W ABOUT 340 NM E-SE OF BARBADOS. IT PRESENT MOVEMENT IS W-NW
AT 23 KT AND IT HAS A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A W-NW TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
LATER ON TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS WITHIN A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-57W. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 12N27W
TO 04N27W MOVING W-SW NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. SAL DRY
AIR IS ENGULFING THIS WAVE AND CURRENTLY SPREADS OVER A PORTION
OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 10N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF
THE AXIS S OF 09N. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 30W-
35W THERE IS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION THAT MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
25N77W TO 13N84W. THE PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC AND CUBA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHILE THE
REMAINING AXIS IS OVER A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
CONTINUOUS RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER
EASTERN CUBA AS WELL AS NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND ACROSS HONDURAS.
NE OF THE WAVE AXIS...TRAILING HIGH LOWER LEVELS MOISTURE FROM
THE WAVE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 25N76W AND A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 69W-76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 08N24W 06N32W 06N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 0N38W TO 0N49W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ALREADY DISCUSSED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 06N-15N E OF 23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 130 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 21W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN
BANKING MODERATE TO HIGH LOWER LEVELS MOISTURE TO THE N-NW GULF
COASTLINES WHICH IS ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO.
THESE SHOWERS EXTENDS ABOUT 60 NM OF THE COASTLINES ABOVE
MENTIONED. SIMILAR CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
23N-27N BETWEEN 87W-93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF
92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
LONGITUDE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER  LEVELS A BROAD
RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AND NORTHERLY WIND AROUND ADVECTS
MOISTURE TO THE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ABOVE
MENTIONED.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY.
RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL CONCENTRATE NW OF THE GULF ON TUESDAY
AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W-NW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N77W TO 13N84W. CONTINUOUS RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AS WELL AS
NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND ACROSS HONDURAS. TRAILING HIGH LOWER
LEVELS MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N76W AND A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING CONTINUOUS
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LA HISPANIOLA. OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N WEST OF 79W. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THAT MOVES
ACROSS PANAMA. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS
THE BASIN.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND SE OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN THIS PERIOD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT LEAST TO 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
REGARDING THIS LOW.

HISPANIOLA...
TRAILING HIGH LOWER LEVELS MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N76W AND A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING CONTINUOUS
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LA HISPANIOLA. WEATHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY TUESDAY BUT START TO DETERIORATE AGAIN
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL CHANTAL MOVES SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TRAILING HIGH LOWER LEVELS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N76W AND A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-28N
BETWEEN 69W-76W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH REMNANT OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N43W TO
27N51W 28N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO IT ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE AXIS N OF 28N BETWEEN 43W-47W. EXCEPT FOR THE ATLC
FEATURES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER ATLC WATERS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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