[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL AT 08/1800 UTC
IS NEAR 11.3N 52.8W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT
410 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. CHANTAL
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 22 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25/26W TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG 22N75W
NEAR THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 16N77W AND 10N79W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
A BAHAMAS 24N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
21N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. IT IS NOT EASY TO
DETERMINE WHICH FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL
AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 10N18W AND 9N23W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N27W TO 5N34W AND 8N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
7N TO 15N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W. NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE
U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. RESIDUAL WIND FLOW THAT IS
AWAY FROM THAT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TROUGH
CONTINUES AS NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE
RESIDUAL FLOW ALSO MERGES WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAHAMAS
24N76W CYCLONIC CENTER...MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS TO THE EAST OF 29N83W 25N88W 20N93W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...
AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND
92W.

EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE CUTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS NEAR
28N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE KINGSVILLE NAVAL AIR
STATION. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED
AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED
FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO GALVESTON.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN 90W AND 91W
AND IN SLIDELL...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA.
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
HEAVY RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
BETWEEN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND PERRY. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
IN FORT MYERS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE ICAO STATION
KDLP OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N...BEYOND CUBA
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 32N BETWEEN 65W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG 22N75W
NEAR THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 16N77W AND 10N79W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
A BAHAMAS 24N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
21N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. IT IS NOT EASY TO
DETERMINE WHICH FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...BASED ON THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...
ARE 0.70 IN BARBADOS...0.78 IN GUADELOUPE...0.33
IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.20 IN ST. THOMAS
IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 75W...ACROSS PANAMA...THROUGH SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

HISPANIOLA...

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MAY
IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N...BEYOND CUBA
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 32N BETWEEN 65W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND FLORIDA.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 22N75W...ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 16N77W
AND 10N79W...IS TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN END OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N36W TO 26N44W AND 24N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N40W 27N50W 26N55W AND 26N58W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N
BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM
29N TO 32N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 33N71W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 64W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N33W TO 25N41W AND
23N55W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N...TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N40W 26N58W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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