[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N30W TO 22N30W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASED DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 12N-
22N BETWEEN 26W-31W. SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WAVE...WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DUST...A CLUSTER OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N26W. THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
04N-08N BETWEEN 25W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N53W TO 18N45W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN
42W-54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
46W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N79W TO 19N80W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS A PORTION OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO FRACTURE
NORTHWARD...HOWEVER GLOBAL MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE WAVE N
OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-83W...WHICH IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH
MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER CUBA...THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 08N26W TO 07N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N34W TO 06N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 25W-33W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 14W-20W...
AND FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N96W NE TO 29N83W WHICH IS
PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. CONSIDERABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FOCUSED
SOUTH AND EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W SW TO 25N97W WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-96W. ANOTHER AREA
OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...FLORIDA KEYS...AND FLORIDA STRAITS
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AS FRACTURED ENERGY FROM A TROPICAL WAVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF.
BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEK...A SW NORTH ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PRIMARILY PROVIDE FOR E-SE WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED W OF 75W WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ENERGY CONTINUES TO FRACTURE
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-84W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 83W-87W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND GENERALLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 15N64W TO 21N56W AND IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 66W...INCLUDING MANY OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS PROVIDING AN
OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.
THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND UNTIL THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW NORTH ATLC AROUND A 1028
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N70W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
36N67W. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W TO 21N77W IS SUPPORTIVE
OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N W OF
74W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...FLORIDA
KEYS...AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 23N61W SUPPORTING A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 61W-66W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N46W TO 28N55W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 31N BETWEEN 37W-
47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A NARROW SURFACE
RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W SW TO
26N40W THEN WEST TO 25N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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