[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N30W TO 10N32W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLIGHT SURGE IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE
ALSO CORRESPONDS WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N53W TO 10N54W MOVING WEST AT 20 KT.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE AND IS CONFIRMED
BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM AROUND 1300 UTC. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N77W TO 11N77W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DIRECTLY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO WEST FROM
19N-23N BETWEEN 79W-84W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED MORE
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAN WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
20N16W TO 12N21W 11N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N23W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 11N31W 8N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 33W-39W...AND FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH MAIN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG 87W. STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEEN SITTING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE ALONG 31N87W 25N94W 26N99W...AS OF 1500 UTC. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FARTHER EAST ALONG 29N85W TO 23N87W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TO THE
SOUTH FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 94W-99W. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS FLORIDA ASSOCIATED MORE
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF REACHING UP TO 15 KT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N91W
TO 13N92W. NO SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 79W-84W. THIS IS LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WAVE ITSELF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH ACTIVITY
NEAR IT. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OFF THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA
RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A FEW LOW-
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW 25 KT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EAST
OF THE WAVE. ALOFT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W.

HISPANIOLA...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-71W. MODERATE
MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE ISLAND INDICATED BY TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BUILD AS THE DAY GOES ON. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC AROUND A
1029 MB HIGH NEAR 35N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WEST OF 78W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE IS ALONG 78W...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N71W. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS TO THE EAST CENTERED NEAR 20N49W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH ALONG
34N64W TO 27N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A PAIR OF 1030 MB AZORES HIGHS. BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER NEAR 20N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SINKING INTO THE
AREA NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 36N47W TO 27N58W. A BROAD
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY ACTIVE WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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