[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N31W TO
5N31W MOVING W-SW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS S OF AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR AND A PLUME
OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE WAVE SOUTHWARD. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 21N52W TO
8N50W MOVING W-SW NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA VOID
OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY W OF THE WAVE TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INDICATED.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N73W THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 12N77W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS
BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY SURROUND THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
10N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N33W THEN
CONTINUES ALONG 8N39W 2N43W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 32W-45W AND S OF 2N W OF 47W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 12W-22W TO THE COAST OF W
AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF W OF 83W EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 02/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N92W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM S AND E OF THE FRONT
AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN TUXPAN AND
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 29N86W ALONG 26N87W TO 22N92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 30N89W
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO 28N93W. THIS TROUGH IS
INDICATING A WIND SHIFT ONLY. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 85W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS INLAND OVER THE W PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NW AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TODAY THROUGH THU. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED AND SHIFT N AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W TO NW ACROSS THE W
GULF WED THROUGH FRI. THE TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST
LATE FRI INTO SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W AND IS
ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN
64W-73W. THE AREA W OF 73W IS DOMINATED BY DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 71W AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS BEING PULLED N IN
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. IT EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG 12N77W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR
10N83W CONTINUING INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ACROSS
PANAMA E OF 79W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN WED TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED
AND THU THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER
HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ARE GENERATING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE ISLAND AND EXTENDING N INTO THE SW ATLC. THIS TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING
THE ISLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ENTER THE W ATLC NEAR 23N80W AND
CONTINUE N TO BEYOND 32N77W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W
OF 78W TO OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N52W ALONG 28N59W TO AN UPPER
LOW IN THE W ATLC NEAR 26N70W TO ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO OVER HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 66W-74W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N58W ALONG 29N62W
TO BEYOND 32N63W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR NW ATLC
TUE THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WILL
MOVE W TONIGHT INTO WED THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NW ACROSS THE
W ATLC LATE WED THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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