[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N30W TO
5N29W MOVING W-SW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS S OF AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR AND A PLUME
OF SAHARAN DUST WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 21N51W TO
9N51W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA VOID OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE
AREA WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY INDICATED.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N72W
ACROSS W HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 13N75W MOVING W-NW 15-20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
17N-21N E OF THE WAVE AND ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-78W JUST S OF THE
WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 9N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N28W THEN RESUMES W
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N32W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N41W ACROSS
THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 31W-44W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N41W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 00N49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF W OF 83W EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA
FLORIDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N90W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 20N86W ALONG 26N87W TO 23N91W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 85W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NW AS A WARM
FRONT LATER TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AND SHIFT N AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY AND TUE NIGHT THEN W
TO NW ACROSS THE W GULF WED THROUGH FRI. THE TROUGH MAY APPROACH
THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W AND IS
ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-75W. THE
AREA W OF 72W IS DOMINATED BY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 74W-81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N W OF 81W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 10N W OF 80W. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND
INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED EVENING. THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED AND THU
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER
HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ARE GENERATING THE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W AWAY FROM HAITI
LATER THIS MORNING REDUCING THE INSTABILITY OVER THE ISLAND.
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN HIGH WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 78W TO
OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N50W ALONG 27N60W TO A
SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC NEAR 26N68W TO ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO E CUBA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N57W ALONG 29N60W TO BEYOND 32N61W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND N OF 30N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 64W. OTHERWISE A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF
HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
TO THE FAR NW ATLC TUE THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE W TODAY INTO WED THEN DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC LATE WED THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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