[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N25W TO 8N25W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N45W TO 7N45W MOVING WEST AT 20 KT.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE AND IS CONFIRMED
BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM AROUND 1300 UTC. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N70W TO 12N72W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE CONTINUES
TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-24N BETWEEN 66W-72W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 72W-77W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS NOW BEING ANALYZED
AS A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS DUE TO THE LACK OF MUCH WESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL NOW BE DISCUSSED IN
THE CARIBBEAN SECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N26W 10N37W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 87W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 31N87W 28N89W
28N95W 27N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALONG 31N84W 25N90W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND UP TO 80 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY IN THE
AREA OF STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS FAIRLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT SINKING AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT OVER
THE WESTERN GULF INCREASING UP TO 15 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH...FORMER TROPICAL WAVE...IS ALONG 23N87W TO
12N87W. THE TROUGH IS INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W-87W. A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA. A FEW CLUSTERS OF ACTIVITY ARE IN THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR COSTA RICA AND COLOMBIA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO COSTA RICA TO
COLOMBIA ALONG 10N. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THIS AREA ALONG
81W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
ENHANCING ACTIVITY NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-76W.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND WILL BE
STRETCHED NORTHWARD. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL AND THEN WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 71W/72W IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER WESTERN
HAITI. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TO HEAT UP.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC AROUND A
1030 MB HIGH NEAR 39N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 77W ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 66W-71W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
71W. ALOFT...A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 78W...WHILE BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS TO THE EAST CENTERED NEAR 17N51W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH ALONG
32N60W TO 28N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH. BROAD UPPER
RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH CENTER
NEAR 17N51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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