[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N24W TO 9N
22W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 23N43W
TO 12N42 MOVING NW NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA VOID OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N66W THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N69W MOVING W
5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66W-72W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N86W TO OVER
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 16N86W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE IS IN AN AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N BETWEEN 80W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 13N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS WEST
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N36W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 35W-38W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 33W-44W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N
BETWEEN 14W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N88W TO THE N
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND FORT WALTON
BEACH FLORIDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N90W TO 28N94W WHERE IT
BEGINS TO MOVE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TO A 1009 MB LOW JUST S OF
GALVESTON TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THE FRONT
FROM MOBILE ALABAMA ALONG 28N90W TO 29N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 86W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW AND
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 27N87W TO 24N91W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S GULF. STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH TUE BECOMING DIFFUSE AND
DISSIPATING BY WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES AND ALSO AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC. A SECOND WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N
BETWEEN 63W-85W WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 82W-85W. W
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT THEN THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN WED
AND THU. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
THU AND FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER HISPANIOLA
AND COUPLED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TODAY INCREASING THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO 31N76W PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W TO OVER FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR
33N48W ALONG 28N55W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 26N63W TO ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 62W-69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N56W TO BEYOND 32N58W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR NW
ATLC TUE THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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