[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 01/0000 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG
20W/21W FROM 8N-17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
23N41W TO 12N40W MOVING NW 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA VOID
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N65W ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N67W MOVING W 5-
10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER THE
AREA IS VOID OVER ANY CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N85W TO OVER
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 16N85W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE IS IN AN AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 21N16W AND CONTINUES TO 18N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS WEST
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N38W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 9N29N TO 4N42W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN
90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM SIERRA LEONE TO SENEGAL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N88W TO THE N
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA AND
CONTINUES ALONG 28N90W TO 28N94W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY TO
INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM S GEORGIA OVER
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 28N85W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N E OF 87W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 88W-92W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S GULF WITH A WEAK 1011 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 24N95W. COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND MON AS IT
WEAKENS THEN BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE BY WED. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT N EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND ALSO AS
A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 11N FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-78W.
THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 68W-71W. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND INTO MON BEFORE
MOVING MOVING INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO MON THEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TUE AND
WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THU.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER HISPANIOLA
AND IS GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
OVER THE ISLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER PUERTO
RICO AND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA MON INCREASING THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO 31N76W PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N W OF 76W TO OVER FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR
33N47W ALONG 28N54W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 26N63W TO OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 72W FROM 25N-29W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N52W ALONG 29N56W TO BEYOND 32N58W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN MON THROUGH WED AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR NW ATLC TUE THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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