[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA
AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N17W AND 8N18W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 5N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S48W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND
60W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N TO THE EAST OF 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W TO 24N90W...TO THE
NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 20N98W IN MEXICO. A SECOND
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO 28N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N97W...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR
19N96W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N59W TO 27N68W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N86W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE WEST OF THE TWO ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...
TO THE WEST OF 50W.

FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED...WITH SOME AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS...IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS
FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. RAINSHOWERS ARE REPORTED FROM 27N TO 29N ALONG THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST. FAIR SKIES ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N ALONG THE REST OF
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 30N84W
18N95W COLD FRONT...TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 94W.
EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 6N76W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 13N82W...TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST
OF 70W...TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 13N70W 14N76W 14N83W
ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 85W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N84W 8N86W...BEYOND
6N90W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 13N70W 14N76W 14N83W ALONG
THE NICARAGUA COAST...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 22N85W 19N88W COLD FRONT...TO THE
NORTH OF 21N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N59W TO 27N68W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N86W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE WEST OF THE TWO ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...
TO THE WEST OF 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N40W
TO 21N42W TO 15N46W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W
TO 30N34W 25N40W AND 21N46W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 21N46W
TO 19N55W AND 19N65W JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N44W AND 27N50W.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 42W
AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W. OTHER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W 20N37W 17N55W...TO 17N72W JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA AND THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 22N13W TO 22N21W AND 21N28W.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N
BETWEEN 10W AND 30W INCLUDING IN AFRICA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...
TO 28N24W 23N31W 18N40W AND 17N55W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12 HOUR FORECAST FOR
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 18 TO 21 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH A 31N37W
24N48W COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 17 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS...IN A BROAD AND GENERAL SENSE...TO THE NORTH OF 18N
BETWEEN 35W AND 55W...WITH ONE 29N35W 21N45W 19N65W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY 31N39W 27N50W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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