[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SIERRA LEONE INTO THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 9N13W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N18W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W TO 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 27W-40W...AND FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN CONUS AND NW GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W AND CONTINUES TOWARDS EASTERN MEXICO ALONG
26N94W 21N97W. VERY SEVERE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AXIS IN THE GULF.
HEAVY SHOWERS DO EXTEND UP TO 45 NM EAST...AND 30 NM WEST OF THE
FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS ALONG 99W. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA...MAINLY SW FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALOFT
ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY DRY AIR. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES THROUGHOUT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF MOSTLY 20 KT ARE EAST OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INCREASING IN SPEED TO 25-30
KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE FRONT REACHING GALE FORCE FROM 24N-26N. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SPREADS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO
STRONG DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE BASIN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KT BLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REACHING 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
69W-82W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N68W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 75W IS HELPING SUPPORT THE SURFACE HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 45W SUPPORTS A PAIR OF
FRONTS. A COLD FRONT IS JUST SKIMMING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N44W 30N54W 32N64W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS UP TO 100 NM TO THE
SOUTH. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N30W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 21N51W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE
TO 20N58W AND THEN BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 20N68W 22N74W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 110 NM WEST OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 25N
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS ELSEWHERE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE OF PORTUGAL. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER
RIDGING CENTERED OVER NW AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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