[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W TO 4N20W 2N30W
1N40W 1N44W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...TO 1S49W IN
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N15W
3N27W 11N34W 11N43W 10N50W 10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THEN NORTHWARD BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH STILL IS LOCATED FROM NEBRASKA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A TEXAS COLD FRONT THAT STILL IS ABOUT
100 TO 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W...TO 28N82W IN FLORIDA.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO 27N87W AND 25N91W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS TO THE EAST OF 21N97W 26N92W BEYOND 31N88W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOUISIANA TO TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEBRASKA TO TEXAS PANHANDLE TROUGH.

VISIBILITIES ARE RANGING FROM 2 TO 6 STATUTE MILES WITH FOG/MIST
AND HAZE IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS IS REPORTING A VARIETY
OF CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM 5 STATUTE MILES OF VISIBILITY AND
HAZE IN EDINBURG...CLEAR SKIES AND 10 STATUTE MILES OF
VISIBILITY IN HEBBRONVILLE AND ALICE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN BROWNSVILLE AND PORT ISABEL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS ARE IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA...AND ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST. RAIN IS FALLING IN PALACIOS...BAY CITY...LAKE
JACKSON...AND AT THE ELLINGTON FIELD IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...
VISIBILITY 5 STATUTE MILES WITH FOG/MIST IN BOOTHVILLE.
VISIBILITIES OF 3 STATUTE MILES OR LESS AND FOG/MIST ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND FOG/MIST ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF 86W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 86W TO THE TAMPA AREA.
FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
18 HOUR FORECAST OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
WITH THE 29N91W 22N98W COLD FRONT...TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERNMOST COLOMBIA...TO 15N78W...BEYOND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AS
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF
73W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF 15N70W 15N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST
CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W IN COSTA RICA TO 8N88W...
BEYOND 6N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 15N70W 15N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA
COAST...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N39W TO 28N57W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W...TO 31N77W...BEYOND
28N82W IN FLORIDA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST
OF THE 32N29W 26N38W 21N51W 20N59W STATIONARY FRONT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W
TO 22N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N38W
AND 21N51W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N51W
TO 20N59W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 25N40W 20N50W 18N60W...TO 17N70W TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N79W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MAURITANIA
TO 23N18W TO 8N26W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM
THE LINE 10N20W 16N10W TO 30N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N15W TO 28N25W 22N33W 13N38W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 42 HOUR FORECAST FOR
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 15 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N63W...AND A 31N35W 25N55W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WITH A 28N35W 20N59W STATIONARY FRONT...TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 61W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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