[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR
5N8W 3N14W TO 2N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N20W 1N29W 2N37W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE
EAST OF 5W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N10W 4N20W5N40W
8N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO
THE WEST OF 90W BECOMES WESTERLY WIND FLOW AFTER CROSSING 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N69W.
THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 29N83W...TO 28N91W AND 28N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG 29N87W 27N88W 25N89W FOR
THE 29/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS IS NOT CONSIDERED TO BE
A SURFACE FEATURE ANY MORE. IT IS MOST PROBABLY MORE OF
A LOW LEVEL FEATURE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF 21N86W 27N89W 30N88W.

OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN
3 MILES WITH MIST AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE
OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE
WEST OF 88W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
THE VISIBILITIES ARE COMPARATIVELY LOWER IN THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST...GALVESTON IS REPORTING LESS THAN 3 MILES WITH MIST/FOG.
VERMILLION AND BOOTHVILLE...IN LOUISIANA...ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE WITH FOG. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND PATCHES OF HAZE AND MIST COVER THE
REST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IS REPORTING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
LOW VISIBILITIES AND FOG/MIST NEAR BROOKVILLE AND PUNTA GORDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
12 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERNMOST COLOMBIA...BEYOND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF
73W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF 15N70W 15N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST
CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION...MIATPTPAN...GIVES
A REPORT OF 0.22 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN CURACAO FOR THE
24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N83W IN COSTA RICA TO 8N88W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF 15N70W 15N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST...
CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE
WARNING FOR 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS OR SO. A SECOND AREA
CONSISTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 10N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 67W
AND 81W...EXCEPT FOR 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. EXPECT
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 18N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N69W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
32N35W 21N66W COLD FRONT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W
24N44W AND 18N45W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W
23N50W 21N60W AND 21N66W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
21N66W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W...AND 23N77W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITHIN 75 TO 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 40W AND 62W...WITHIN 100 TO 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 62W AND 70W...AND WITHIN 180 TO 300 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 25N40W
20N50W 18N60W...TO 17N70W TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N79W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 25N26W. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER BEYOND 32N24W.
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 24W NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N19W.
IT IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE DRIER AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 28N21W 24N38W
18N52W AND 17N60W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N36W 21N65W
23N77W...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 44W. ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 70W...20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 12 FEET. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 61W. A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS...20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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