[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH COMES OFF THE GHANA COAST NEAR 4N2W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N8W 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N17W 1N23W
2N30W 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE REGION WITHIN THE ITCZ AND
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 14W-19W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 145
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW FROM A HIGH PRESSURE REGION OVER THE EAST CONUS
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA PRODUCING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION OVER THIS REGION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
A SMALL ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A PRIOR CUT-OFF LOW
BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. EXCEPT FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO WHERE THE WIND
BLOWS AT 20 KT...THE REST OF THE GULF HAS LIGHTER RETURN FLOW OF
10-15 KT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC AND THE FAR
NE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA AS A DYING COLD FRONT BETWEEN TITUSVILLE AND CRYSTAL
RIVER. THE DYING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NE GULF NEAR 28N82W AND
EXTENDS TO 29N84W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
21N86W TO 15N88W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF THE HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SMALL ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM A PRIOR CUT-OFF LOW BETWEEN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC S OF 25N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALL
BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CHANCES OF NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
30N67W AND EXTENDS TO 28N73W 28N78W TO TITUSVILLE FLORIDA. THIS
FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC N OF 27 N. THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N48W 26N56W
24N63W TO 23N68W. SIMILARLY TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE WEST
ATLC...THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED TO THE
FRONT. OVER THE EAST ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 20 N
ASSOCIATED TO A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N24W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE N OF 8N ALLOW FOR FAIR WEATHER OVER
BOTH THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR





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