[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 5N9W CONTINUING TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 2N30W 00N39W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 00W-15W...AND FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO STATES FROM
E TEXAS TO S GEORGIA DRIFTING SE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE
GULF NEAR 28N84W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 28N. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DIP OVER N
FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N64W TO
13N63W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA
TO BELIZE TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S GUATEMALA NEAR 15N90W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS AT 27N71W. ANOTHER
1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF BERMUDA AT 32N62W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ALONG 28N50W 25N60W 23N70W 24N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N26W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-80W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS N OF
HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY IN 24
HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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