[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 5N9W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
8W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC AND AS FAR
S AS THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT
DISSIPATES AS IT ENTERS THE GULF AT 22/2100 UTC BETWEEN NAPLES
AND FORT MYERS CONTINUING ALONG 25N84W TO 26N90W. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS BRIDGING THIS FRONT AND COVERING THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB HIGH OVER MISSOURI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS
COVER ALL OF THE E GULF AND THE SW GULF S OF 22N TO OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE LEAVING THE NW GULF RATHER CLEAR THIS EVENING.
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS FORCED SE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE W GULF WED SPREADING
E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF LATE THU INTO FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL
CLIP THE NE GULF SAT AND DISSIPATE FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA
TO SW LOUISIANA SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THESE NE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 20N W OF 85W. TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THU. STRONGER TRADES WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN LATE THU
THROUGH SUN AS THE W ATLC HIGH N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF
32N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/2100 UTC ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N75W ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH THEN DISSIPATES AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO BETWEEN NAPLES AND FORT MYERS. A WIND SHIFT DEPICTED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 31N67W ALONG 27N73W
ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR 25N79W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE ABOVE SURFACE
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N54W WHILE A SECOND UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 45W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH ABOUT 250 NM S OF THE AZORES. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
32N59W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WED MORNING. THE FRONT N OF 25N WILL
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE THE FRONT S OF 25N WILL
STALL BY THU MORNING. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL DROP S OF
32N THU MORNING PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRI. A THIRD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION SAT MORNING EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA
TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA LATE SAT.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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