[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
TO 4N14W AND 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W TO 2N27W
1N32W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...TO 2S41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND
11W...BETWEEN 14W AND 16W WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N...
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 1N19W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG BETWEEN 49W AND 50W ALONG 1N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 13W AND 24W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N25W 6N30W
5N40W 4N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN U.S.A. IT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N76W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COASTAL PLAINS...TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE REST OF THE
TEXAS COAST AS FAR AS 28N...ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ALONG 28N/29N...
TO 31N102W IN WEST TEXAS...CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 31N102W INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE AREAS OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR MARY ESTHER
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 300 TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N60W 25N80W...AND WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 25N80W 21N88W 15N92W. THE SKIES APPEAR
TO BE CLEARING...COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING...TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF 29N91W 24N93W 23N95W 24N97W.

SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THAT IS ABOUT 400 NM
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTHEASTWARD...BEYOND FLORIDA...
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR 13N101W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN MEXICO NEAR 28N107W...ABOUT 160 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...ACROSS THE REST OF MEXICO...ACROSS THAT PART OF TEXAS
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 30N...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS WITH THE EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH...
AND THE SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
GULF OF MEXICO WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
SOUTH TEXAS...TO MEXICO NEAR 19N97W...TO THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS WIND
FLOW REGIME IS PART OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BEYOND.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 13N55W...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS...AND BEYOND PUERTO RICO. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
CURVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
15N70W 14N80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 2N74W IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
THE REST OF SOUTHERN COLOMBIA TO 1N80W...TO 4N86W AND BEYOND
5N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 90W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE CURVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N70W 14N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 23N65W 27N58W
BEYOND 32N50W.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 13N55W...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS...AND BEYOND PUERTO RICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 27N74W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
21N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 31N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 21N23W 16N35W 12N49W AND 10N54W...ABOUT 400 NM
TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N28W...TO 32N38W 25N52W 24N62W AND 24N71W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N77W 29N81W COLD FRONT AND
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND AREA HAS 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 39W.
A THIRD AREA HAS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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