[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
TO 3N15W 3N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 3N23W TO THE EQUATOR AND 30W TO 1S42W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 6W-15W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS OF 5-15 KT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER
MOST OF THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION
BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST
PACIFIC. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF BY PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND
EXTENDS WESTWARD TO 29N86W TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA NEAR 29N89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE WEST ATLC AND ANTICYCLONIC FRESH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND THE NORTHERN
COAST OF COLOMBIA...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT COVER
THE REGION DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LOW LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM WEST OF JAMAICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN BUT NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
OBSERVED. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE.
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OF 5 KT OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY TRANSITIONED TO
A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM 30N66W 28N72W 26N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH BEING
SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST
PACIFIC. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AZORES HIGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE NORTH EAST ATLC N OF 26N EAST OF 28W. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE EAST
ATLC IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AND N OF 16N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
FROM 10N-17N ENHANCED BY A CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND A BROAD RIDGE THAT IS OVER WEST
AFRICA. ELSEWHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR







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