[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
7N13W TO 5N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 5N20W TO 3N30W TO THE EQUATOR AND 40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 13W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 5-15 KT OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER
MOST OF THE GULF. PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST
PACIFIC. A COLD FRONT STARTS TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF BY
PENSACOLA AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MISSISSIPPI
AND LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT
AND POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFFECTING THE
NORTH AND EAST REGIONS OF THE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF
10-15 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA...NORTHEASTERLIES WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT COVER THE REGION
DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LOW LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LIGHTER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
5-15 KT COVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM WEST OF JAMAICA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
NARROW TROUGH WITH AXIS SOUTH OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N68W TO 28N72W 26N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 73W
N OF 27N BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE EAST PACIFIC. SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR THE
AZORES COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT IS N OF 28N EAST OF 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 21N AND EAST OF 20W.
ELSEWHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WEST ATLC
WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEST ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR




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