[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
5N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
5N21W TO 4N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 14W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
MOVING SE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE N GULF
OF MEXICO. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO SE TEXAS. PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOT THE GULF. SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...
AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N68W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 30N71W TO S FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N32W.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W TO N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N20W TO 20N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 45W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 32N62W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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