[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N11W TO
4N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N18W TO 1N27W 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-16W...
AND FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 24W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE N
GULF OF MEXICO. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO SE TEXAS. AN EMBEDDED
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 27N84W TO 25N84W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS DOT THE GULF. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10 KT SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF...TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
73W-77W WITH WINDS FROM THE NE. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...
GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 80W...OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA
...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N67W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE
COAST OF S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N41W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
22N32W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
27W-35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT
TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRANSITION TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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