[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N15W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N26W
2N32W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 12W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO OVER THE GULF N OF 27N
AND INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS NO
LONGER IN THE GULF WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER SW
FLOW ALOFT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLEAR SKIES WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
THIS MORNING AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER ARKANSAS. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS
ACROSS THE N WATERS LATE MON INTO TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
AT 18/0900 UTC ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA ALONG 20N84W TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA W OF THE FRONT TO OVER W
CUBA/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND
THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA REMAINS CREATING FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS
LATER TODAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
OVER THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 72W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE REGION AT 18/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N77W THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA
CLARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF
THE FRONT. LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
AND ALL OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N55W. A WEAK UPPER
LOW IS IN THE SE ATLC CENTERED NEAR 19N42W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N43W TO 16N46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 21N39W TO 17N43W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 33N51W AND 1025 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 31N20W. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
CUBA THIS EVENING THEN STALL FROM 32N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT.
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL RETURN NW THROUGH THE N BAHAMAS ON
SUN THEN MOVE SE AGAIN ON MON AND TUE WITH A NEW SURGE OF COLD
AIR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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