[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N16W TO 03N25W TO 03N37W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 21W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO NE MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N70W. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
INTO THE GULF FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO
26N92W TO 21N94W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 18N94W. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LIMITED...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WESTERN GULF WEST OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION OVERCAST SKIES
PREVAIL WITH...SHIP...BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS
REPORTING LIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE NW GULF. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W BUT IS HOWEVER OVERSHADOWED BY STRONGER
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES VERY DRY AIR PREVAILS ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN
WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS AND SKIES FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 70W-80W AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN AS CENTRAL ATLC LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BRUSHES
ACROSS THE THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES. BY THURSDAY...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...
INTRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS W OF 80W THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N70W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
BROAD 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W.
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT IS
UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS...AT THE SURFACE
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL W OF 55W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES AND THE OCCASIONAL PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER. THESE SHOWERS
STRETCH FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NW ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
HISPANIOLA TO THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N41W THAT SUPPORTS A NEARLY
COLLOCATED 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N41W. A STATIONARY FRONT
IS ANALYZED EAST OF THE LOW CENTERED FROM 32N37W TO 25N38W TO
19N47W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 75 NM WEST
OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND REMAINS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 39W-44W. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 34N14W. HOWEVER...
DIFFLUENCE DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
GENERATING MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 20W-38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net