[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR
4N7W 4N10W AND 4N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 3N20W 1N30W AND
1N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE ITCZ LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND EQUAL OR
GREATER THAN 40 KT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR FORT MYERS
AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 25N84W. TRADE WINDS OF 5 KT TO 15
KT ARE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. NORTH OF 26N
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT DOMINATE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140
NM OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST COAST. WITHIN 24 HR...RETURN
FLOW WILL BUILD IN THE REGION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

IN THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
TO A WIDE RIDGE WITH AXIS NEAR 62W COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
AND PART OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. EXCEPT W OF 80W BETWEEN THE COAST
OF HONDURAS AND WESTERN CUBA...THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE AND TRADE WINDS RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT WHICH
IS PROVIDING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TO 21N W OF 80W. WITHIN 24
HOURS...TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
30N75W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
27N80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM FROM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE 1025 MB
HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N55W. IN THE EASTERN ATLC...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N27W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
25N34W 23N40W. A DYING COLD FRONT CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
TO 23N45W 25N50W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 25W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE CANARY
ISLANDS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR




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