[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042311
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY DOES NOT EXTEND OVER ATLC WATERS.
THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N20W 2N30W EQ40W 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
21W-28W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
26N82W 21N94W 19N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS NORTH OF THE
THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 26N97W 21N94W. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 300 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT
LACKS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE
UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
GULF SUPPORTING NE TO E WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS REACHING 30 KT. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE NW WINDS COVER
THE FAR WESTERN GULF WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A PORTION OF
THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF MAY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WHILE THE REST REMAINS STATIONARY BEFORE THE WHOLE AXIS MOVES
BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR
ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA CENTERED NEAR
HISPANIOLA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE
GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AT 05/0600 UTC. A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW MOSTLY NOTED BETWEEN
12N-15N IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 14N-19N IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 24N44W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY EQUALLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND COVERING THE BASIN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...INTO THE ATLC TO 40W.
HOWEVER...A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM NEAR
31N68W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W SUPPORTING OVERCAST SKIES
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS UP TO 200 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS.
FARTHER EAST...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE RIDGE ALONG 31N35W TO 29N46W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE AXIS. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A NARROW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO NEAR 6N39W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
ITCZ TO THE COAST OF AFRICA EAST OF 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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