[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW CENTER OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 13N15W TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N19W AND
CONTINUES ALONG EQ26W 1S34W EQ42W 2N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 10W-16W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 34W-40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE BASIN
OVER THE PAST DAY HAS ALMOST MADE ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA. AS OF
2100 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N87W. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDS ABOUT 50
NM EAST OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FURTHER SE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO BE SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. BESIDES NEAR THE FRONT...DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA HELPING PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF THE FRONT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ALSO PRESENT
WEST OF THE FRONT AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
TEXAS AT 26N99W. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE A SECOND PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE
TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS ALMOST INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA TO THE
EASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
ENTER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER
THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KT IS PRESENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF FLORIDA TO 77W WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ALSO NORTH OF 29N TO 65W. THIS AREA IN UNDER DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN THE STRONG UPPER LOW SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WEST ATLC ALONG
70W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A
1027 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 43N67W. A
SECOND UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS
NEAR 47W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N48W 25N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 280 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALONG 31W SUPPORTS A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
26N34W...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL EAST ATLC. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS IS HELPING SUPPORT A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
30N21W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TOWARDS THE EAST TO ANOTHER LOW
CENTER OVER NORTHERN AFRICA...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
WEST AND NORTH. THE FRONT AND TROUGH APPEAR DRY AT THIS TIME
WITH NO NOTED PRECIPITATION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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