[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER GUINEA NEAR 10N15W CONTINUING TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W INTO
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N9W TO 2N30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 30W-40W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM 3N40W TO 4N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF 25N W OF 85N WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AT 26/0900 UTC FROM A 998 MB
TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA ALONG 26N87W ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 18N95W. A SQUALL LINE PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY TO NEAR
27N87W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL POINT LOW ACROSS S GEORGIA INTO
THE W ATLC. THE SOUTHERN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FAR E GULF IS
USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND CEDAR KEY. COLD FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO SLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY THEN DRIFT SE THROUGH STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST LATE WED AND RACE ACROSS GULF THU
MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND THEN MOVING SE OF THE GULF
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS MAINLY E OF 82W LEAVING THE
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT THEN IS
REINFORCED BY SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT THU AND THEN WILL
ENTER NW CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI. THE MERGED FRONTS WILL REACH FROM
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AND WITH THE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO IS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N75W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N55W TO
26N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N75W TO OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA
INTO THE W ATLC JUST N OF THE FLORIDA BORDER TO 30N79W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W
OF 77W. THE AREA S OF THE FRONT W OF 60W REMAINS REMARKABLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR
32N17W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N23W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 29N19W TO 24N21W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT AND THE ABOVE SURFACE
LOW WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N37W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TODAY AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE
FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT REACH FROM 32N73W
TO S FLORIDA EARLY WED THEN FROM BERMUDA TO W CUBA EARLY THU AND
FROM 32N57W TO E CUBA EARLY FRI AND STALL OVER AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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