[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 6N11W TO 5N13W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N13W TO 3N20W TO 0N30W TO 0N45W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL AT 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 8W-15W...AND FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN 35W-45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 18W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS ENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA NEAR
33N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS TO N
MEXICO NEAR 26N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE LOW CENTER. 15-25 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE N GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS VOID OF
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF SW LOUISIANA WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER
MOST OF THE GULF W OF THE AXIS. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER
THE N GULF N OF 27N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN NAMELY OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 64W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 80W OF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT A GALE TO BE ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W FRIDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N57W
TO E OF THE BAHAMAS AT 25N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N40W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N15W TO 27N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 14N-26N
BETWEEN WEST AFRICA AND 50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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