[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1105 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE AFRICAN WEST COAST NEAR 6N11W AND
EXTENDS TO 4N15W IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N16W TO 1N23W EQ30W TO EQ48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 17W-50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S
FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W THEN WESTWARD TO 25N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NW GULF ALONG 25N84W 26N89W 28N92W 29N94W. IN THE NW AND
N-CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N WEST OF 87W BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOISTURE ADVECTION BY SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST PACIFIC IS
SUPPORTING THE RAINSHOWERS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BASIN ARE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WEST OF 90W AND RANGE FROM 20-25 KT WHILE ELSEWHERE WINDS OF 15
KT DOMINATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
WELL AS OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS ASSOCIATED TO A 70-110 KT JET N OF 25N. WITHIN 24
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DISPLACING THE WARM FRONT N
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW
GULF EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NW AND N-CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN REGIONS WHILE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN
REGION. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT ARE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING ALONG THE
COLOMBIA COAST. NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE ENTIRE
BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC AND IN THE WEST ATLC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA TO
25N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT STRETCHING OVER THE
GULF WATERS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
28N67W 25N70W TO 22N73W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT.
SURFACE RIDGING N OF 22N DOMINATES THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND THE
W ATLC E OF 63W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N41W.
WEST OF THE HIGH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-30N
BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. E OF THE HIGH...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N22W 28N28W TO 27N35W WITH NO
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED IT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION WHICH
CONTINUE FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLC.
IN 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC MOVES N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHILE THE FRONT IN THE E ATLC DISSIPATES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR




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