[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 202336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 4N17W TO 0N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S46W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN
20W-30W...AND FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 37W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA
AT 26N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N87W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 26N87W TO HOUSTON TEXAS AT 25N97W MOVING N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WARM FRONT. 10-15 KT
NE WINDS ARE N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE 10-20 KT SE
TO S WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONTS. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM
24N-26N E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. A
90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND A WARM
FRONT  TO BE WELL N OF THE N GULF. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL TO BE IN THE WARM AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN NAMELY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...BELIZE
...AND GUATEMALA. MORE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W
TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N70W
TO 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A
1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N25W TO
26N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 35W-50W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM
14N-27N BETWEEN WEST AFRICA AND 50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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