[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 1N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 45W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N84W
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W TO S OF MATAMOROS MEXICO
AT 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.
15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM
24N-27N E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. A
90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA TO MOVE SE TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA... WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER NE MEXICO
RETROGRADES BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS
WITH MORE SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN NAMELY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...GULF OF HONDURAS...
HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
COASTS OF PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
N OF 17N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
31N63W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO
25N55W DISSIPATING TO 24N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM N OF FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
27N34W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N27W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER A LARGE AREA
FROM 12N-27N BETWEEN WEST AFRICA AND 73W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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