[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 11N15W
THEN ALONG 7N17W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 27W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE SW
COAST OF AFRICA TO THE EQUATOR E OF 5W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
32W-43W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO
TEXAS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS FROM THE N GULF
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF WATERS NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED OVER THE NW GULF AND COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 25N W OF
90W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
JUST S OF TUXPAN TO JUST N OF TAMPICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.
REMNANT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 84W AND S OF 25N OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 26N BY WED NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REBUILD BEHIND FRONT ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N73W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVER HAITI NEAR 20N71W
EXTENDING ALONG 16N78W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W
OF THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF
THE BASIN. STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN W OF 70W. THESE TRADE WINDS MAY USHER IN SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N E OF 73W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU AND FRI AS W ATLC HIGH WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W SUPPORTING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W EXTENDING
ALONG 25N63W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 20N71W AS IT ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE
TO 25N68W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC BETWEEN 25W-60W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 20N. A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF THE W ATLC FRONT ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 27N40W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY THROUGH TUE THEN DIFFUSE WED AND THU. W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ALONG 32N THROUGH WED NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY WED THIS COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA WED NIGHT BEFORE WEAKEN
AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 32N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU AND
DISSIPATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net