[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
06N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 04W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 10W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS
THAT SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 25N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W THEN TO
19N92W IN THE SW GULF. WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS PRECIPITATION
FREE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS COVERS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W AND LOW-LEVEL OVERCAST SKIES S
OF A LINE FROM 23N98W TO 21N91W IN THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AS A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N96W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N-NE TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15
TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS E OF 90W AND
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AS WELL. BY LATE SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN GULF W
OF 93W AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR
OF COLD FRONT THAT EXTEND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE EASTERNMOST
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 16N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THE SECOND AND MORE
DYNAMIC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS FRONT
REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS BY EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS E OF 80W
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE HOWEVER ADVECTING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE
EASTERNMOST COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA VIA CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN
240 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT...A MUCH MORE
DYNAMIC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N75W TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 25N81W. THIS COLD FRONT REMAINS PRECIPITATION-
FREE...HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY USHERING
IN STRONG NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE N OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N43W. THE ONLY WEAKNESS LOCATED WITHIN
THE RIDGING IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N21W SW TO 26N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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