[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W
TO 2N15W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO ITCZ AND CONTINUES ALONG
1S24W 2S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
11W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N
BETWEEN 18W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO PROGRESO MEXICO NEAR 21N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF
THE FRONT TO INCLUDE S FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM
26N-29N E OF 85W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR
31N86W. 10-20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH STRONGEST WINDS S OF 25N. THE NW GULF AND S TEXAS HAS
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SW TO W WINDS ARE NOTED WITH A 110-130 KT
JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 86W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO DRIFT SE AND EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 79W-84W...INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM W HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE
OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE
TO THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N67W
TO THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N47W. THE
TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
32N28W TO 27N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 32N65W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE N OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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