[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF N LIBERIA NEAR
6N11W TO 4N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N15W TO 4N27W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 11W-33W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 38W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PALM BAY FLORIDA
NEAR 28N81W TO VENICE FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N90W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA N OF THE FRONT. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF 90W. 10-25 KT N WINDS
ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE S GULF HAS 10 KT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF
25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA TO
HONDURAS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 82W-85W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 26N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF PORTUGAL NEAR
39N15W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N25W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 32N64W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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