[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
10N14W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 33W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AT 28N88W TO A 1016
MB LOW CENTER NEAR 21N93S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. THE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW GALE
FORCE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER MOST
OF THE GULF N OF THE TROUGH TO INCLUDE THE GULF COAST STATES.
FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF
FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 82W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 33N102W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO EXTEND S FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM N OF 15N W OF
80W AND ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF
80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND LIGHT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA MOVING W
WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. EXPECT A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO
26N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 30N56W TO 26N59W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF 65W. DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N52W TO 12N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE
TROUGH FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 33W AND 45W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS ALSO CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 27N6W PRODUCING SHOWERS.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 25N51W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE N FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS

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