[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251836 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 25 2013

CORRECTION FOR THE FORECAST INFORMATION FOR HISPANIOLA...AND TO
INCLUDE MARINE FORECAST INFORMATION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
COASTAL LIBERIA ALONG 6N11W 5N20W 5N34W AND 3N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 38W AND
53W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 29N70W TO 26N76W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 26N76W...
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS JUST TO THE NORTH OF ANDROS
ISLAND...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W...CURVING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. THE FRONT
BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N86W TO NORTHERN
GUATEMALA NEAR 18N90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W 27N70W...TO 23N81W
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.09 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO
28N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CURVING TO A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N100W
IN MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...
KMZG...KBQX...KATP...KSPR...AND KMYT. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KGVX...
KVAF...KEMK DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS...KGUL...AND KVBS.
CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM FALFURRIAS TO CORPUS
CHRISTI...AND FROM PORT LAVACA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER CITIES. LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS IN
GALLIANO LOUISIANA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT
THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS
OF FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES...AND LOW CLOUD/MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO KEY
WEST. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N80W TO 21N86W AND TROUGH FROM
19N92W TO 22N96W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 26N81W TO 26N88W TO 19N96W.

FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N63W
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A
SECOND 21N65W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 8N69W IN
VENEZUELA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 4N
IN COLOMBIA TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W
AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
26N67W...ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA...TO 11N69W IN
VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TROUGH...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 150 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL BECOME
ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT WITH TIME IN A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. THE CYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL
TRANSITION INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE ABOUT 200 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE PURELY CYCLONIC FOR MOST OF
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...CHANGING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TIME.

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 16N70W
14N77W 10N80W...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.22 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.78 IN TRINIDAD...0.53 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO...0.42 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.09 IN BERMUDA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N78W 4N80W
BEYOND 5N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS SOLELY RELATED
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 75W...INCLUDING IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 19N19W OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 30W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N37W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N67W 24N80W. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN
120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS
OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET IN AN
AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N45W TO 28N35W TO 26N56W
TO 10N61W TO 06N52W TO 07N35W TO 28N35W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 69W AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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