[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
05N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N13W TO 04N20W TO 03N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 25W-
36W...AND FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 41W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF THIS MORNING EAST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 107W. WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDINESS...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY S-SW TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO GULF
COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT EARLY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW CENTER AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW CARRY MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 14N70W TO 20N69W TO 26N66W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS SW ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INLAND
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE NE
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS CARRYING THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N67W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INLAND ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO THE SE...A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR
17N66W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER
GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 12N-29N BETWEEN 57W-67W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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