[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...DUE TO STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 34N60W AND A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH COLOMBIA NEAR
6N75W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF
AND TO WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N28W AS DEPICTED ON
EARLIER ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 20/1032 UTC AND 20/1216 UTC. SEE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 5N5W TO 8N15W TO 5N30W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 15W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N60W IS PRODUCING
10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 15-30
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...
HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E
CUBA...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ALL MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
AXIS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 3N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT SIMILAR
SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N60W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC. THE TAIL END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30N AND
40N. ANOTHER 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
38N14W. ELSEWHERE...GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
16N28W. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 18N42W TO 8N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N33W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-33N BETWEEN 23W-32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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