[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S OF
22N W OF 94W WITH NW TO N WINDS 30-40 KT AND SEAS 10-14 FT. THE
GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON 16/0000 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE WARNING IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF
30N E OF FRONT TO 75W WITH SW WINDS 30-35 KT AND SEAS 10-13 FT.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON 15/1800 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W TO 3N40W
TO BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-
10N BETWEEN 9W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
28N80W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 18N93W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA
AT 27N81W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 21N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-
27N BETWEEN 80W-84W. A GALE IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF
94W WITH NW TO N WINDS 30-40 KT. 20-30 KT WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NW
OF FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRTOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW
OF FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. PRESENTLY
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES TO
THE 80'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULS WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...E YUCATAN PENINSULA
...BELIZE...AND N GUATEMALA. FURTHER S... A MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT
10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA...S OF
14N BETWEEN 78W-85W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE W CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
E OF THE ISLAND MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N78W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 30N E OF
FRONT TO 75W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC
FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 20W-70W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net