[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N86W 25N90W 19N95W. GALE-FORCE NORTH
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE
WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS ELSEWHERE TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT. SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 93W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

GALE-FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 67W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W AND 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3N20W TO 6N23W 4N40W AND 2N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 6W
AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
34W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 30N
BETWEEN 85W AND 86W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N90W...TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...
CURVING TO 21N100W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 25N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N89W JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TO 24N86W...TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

CLEARING SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
ALL THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING...THAT ARE ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AROUND THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MOSTLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COVER FLORIDA FROM
PERRY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
BROOKSVILLE AND ACROSS THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN
AREA. IT HAS BEEN RAINING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TAMPA
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CONTINUE FROM
SARASOTA TO PUNTA GORDA. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN KEY WEST. .COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO 25N90W TO 19N95W.CLEAR
SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST
FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...REACHING CUBA...FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA EASTWARD...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...ACROSS
70W AND TOWARD HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...TO 80W.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N
TO THE WEST OF 80W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.70 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.88 IN TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 10N84W IN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 9N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W
INCLUDING ALONG THE COASTS OF THE NEARBY CENTRAL AMERICAN
COUNTRIES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W. EXPECT WINDS 20
KNOTS OF LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO
THE NORTH OF 27N MOSTLY...AND REACHING 60W. THE WESTERLY WIND
FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT STARTS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...AND CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N54W...TO 27N63W 25N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA TO 21N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 31N41W. A 1029 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N29W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN
AFRICA FROM MOROCCO TO THE WESTERN SAHARA...INTO MAURITANIA AND
SENEGAL...TO 8N16W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 60W.
EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 27N35W 22N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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