[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEGINNING 15/0600 UTC FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 KT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WINDS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 30 KT BEFORE
INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
9N13W TO 6N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 6N19W TO 3N30W TO 2N47W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
NEAR 34N76W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AT 22N87W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
45 NM OF THE FRONT. 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...
HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. FURTHER S... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 9N84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA
...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER JAMAICA...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
70W-79W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W
MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA... AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
S OF THE ISLAND MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N56W TO 27N64W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE  CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AT 24N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N32W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
10N E OF 25W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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