[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 6N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-
9N BETWEEN 14W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AT 24N80W TO W CUBA AT 23N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
21N87W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE FRONT. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. TEMPERATURES ARE
PRESENTLY IN THE 50'S ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND IN THE 70'S OVER
S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW
GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER
THE W GULF W OF 93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...BELIZE...GUATEMALA... AND
HONDURAS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 83W-91W. FURTHER S... A MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA
AT 9N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W TO N
COLOMBIA AT 11N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
72W-76W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W
MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE W OF 80W AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
75W.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
S OF THE ISLAND MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N70W TO THE N BAHAMAS
AT 26N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 30N17W TO 24N16W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 12W-19W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
23N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E
OF 30W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E...WHILE THE E ATLANTIC
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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