[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N94W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT 18N93W. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE W OF FRONT. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS REMAINS NW OF FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE
50'S ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND IN THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF
27N...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT THE
FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N86W TO 16N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 80W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 79W-84W.
ELSEWHERE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-71W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA SUPPRESSING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO BE MOSTLY S OF
HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N70W TO JUST N
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA AT 28N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINS NW OF FRONT. A LARGE 1026 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N42W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N16W TO
26N20W TO 20N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.
IN THE TROPICS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF
TRINIDAD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
STATIONARY...WHILE THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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