[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110352 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

CORRECTION TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION...FOR AN
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT 30N84W TO
23N94W TO 19N95W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET
FROM THE FRONT TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 95W. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT
TO THE WEST OF 91W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8
FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 91W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W AND 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N18W TO 6N26W 5N40W...TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES
7N36W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N94W...
TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...CURVING TO 20N97W IN
MEXICO...23N101W AND 26N100W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N81W 26N90W 20N96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE CLOUDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT 30N90W 24N98W. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS MOVING AROUND THE EDGE OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 24N66W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE EASTERN END OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FIRST FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEN WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...BECAUSE OF AN
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 20N84W 17N83W 14N82W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM
TO THE NORTH OF 16N48W 15N60W 17N65W 18N72W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
10/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.73 IN
KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...0.26 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.21 IN
ST. THOMAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 84W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA...7N80W...BEYOND
8N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 74W AND 85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT... EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST
CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 79W...INCLUDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
PASSAGES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 46W. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 24N66W ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
SUPPORTS AN EASTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH AND AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
20W AND 34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W 22N30W 19N48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO 17 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF
40W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
22N TO THE WEST OF 52W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH OF 09N AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 31N49W 22N72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net