[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF MEXICO...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 08/0600 UTC
S OF 22N W OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N84W TO 23N94W
TO 18N94W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC BASIN...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 08/0600 UTC
FOR THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N35W TO 21N40W TO 18N50W.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 05N09W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 06N26W TO 07N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-
11N BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 29N85W SW TO 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
18N93W. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 88W-92W AS
WELL AS S OF 20N E OF 93W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE
LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC BY
EASTERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...THERE IS A GALE WARNING
ASSOCIATED WITH N-NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE COURSE OF 48
HOURS...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
DRIFT NW WHILE IT WEAKENS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN W OF 72W WHERE
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OBSERVED ON SSMI TPW IMAGERY
CONVERGE ALONG THE COASTLINES OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE COASTS. S OF 10N
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO A 1005 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 15N E
OF 67W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER
ISLANDS FROM 16N61W TO 15N63W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W TO BEYOND
PUERTO RICO.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL
AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING AS A MOIST
AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W BEING
SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. VERY DRY AIR IS
ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N W OF 46W.
OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN ATLC...A 1002 MB LOW IS NEAR 32N39W. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 30N30W SW
TO 22N36W TO 19N45W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE ALONG
17N53W TO 15N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 40W-54W...N OF 22N
BETWEEN 23W-33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF
26N BETWEEN 34W-44W. THERE IS A GALE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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