[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N36W TO 23N42W TO 20N53W THEN SHEAR LINE TO 18N68W.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
13 TO 20 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MARINE CONDITIONS...ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT
TO 54W N OF 25N NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
PRIMARILY NE SWELL. N OF 26N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF SHEAR LINE TO 25N
BETWEEN 53W AND 66W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER AREA W OF FRONT TO 70W...EXCEPT N OF 27N W OF 60W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 9N16W AND 8N19W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 7N20W 4N30W AND 2N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 9N TO
13N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W.

A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 9N
TO 14N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO MEXICO NEAR 19N97W. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS IN MEXICO FROM 19N97W TO 22N100W...25N100W AND BEYOND
THE TEXAS BIG BEND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 31N87W 25N93W 19N96W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 27N82W ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N65W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1028 MB HIGH CENTER...TO
30N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 28N...TO 27N84W AND 26N87W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MANY OF THE ICAO STATIONS. VISIBILITIES
OF THREE MILES OR LESS WITH FOG CONTINUE AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE AREA...AND AT THE WESTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL TEXAS BEHIND THE CURRENT
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. LIGHT RAIN IS OBSERVED AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN
CONTINUE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED FROM PERRY TO TALLAHASSEE TO
APALACHICOLA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED FROM THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA TO SARASOTA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 29N90W TO 26N93W AND 19N97W. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT WIND SPEEDS TO 30 KNOTS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST FROM 22N TO 26N. SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 19N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
TO 21N BETWEEN 52W AND 64W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.65 IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 1.44 IN ST. THOMAS.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY-TO-
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH WILL COVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 80W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500
MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
70W WESTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...7N80W AND 7N83W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W
AND 83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO
17N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 32N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N47W...TO A
20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N65W...BEYOND 10N68W
AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
28N46W 23N50W AND 21N55W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 21N55W TO 19N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 55W AND
65W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 69W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 31N TO
33N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 28N40W
21N56W.

A NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
34N27W. SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 35W. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE
NORTHEAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD
LIMIT SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N26W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 30N18W 24N18W 18N20W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 33N TO 36WN
BETWEEN 24W AND 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
28N TO 32N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W.

A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N62W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE 1027 MB HIGH CENTER...ACROSS BERMUDA...THROUGH
29N74W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N92W.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N37W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 70W AND
75W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET FROM 10N TO 15N TO THE EAST OF 40W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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